PubMed ID:
27943382
Public Release Type:
Journal
Publication Year: 2017
Affiliation: National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, 20892, Maryland, U.S.A.
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.7190
Authors:
Ankerst DP,
Chatterjee N,
Gail MH,
Grill S,
Pfeiffer RM
Request IDs:
10835
Studies:
The Hepatitis C Antiviral Long-Term Treatment Against Cirrhosis Trial
,
Viral Resistance to Antiviral Therapy of Chronic Hepatitis C
We compare the calibration and variability of risk prediction models that were estimated using various approaches for combining information on new predictors, termed 'markers', with parameter information available for other variables from an earlier model, which was estimated from a large data source. We assess the performance of risk prediction models updated based on likelihood ratio (LR) approaches that incorporate dependence between new and old risk factors as well as approaches that assume independence ('naive Bayes' methods). We study the impact of estimating the LR by (i) fitting a single model to cases and non-cases when the distribution of the new markers is in the exponential family or (ii) fitting separate models to cases and non-cases. We also evaluate a new constrained maximum likelihood method. We study updating the risk prediction model when the new data arise from a cohort and extend available methods to accommodate updating when the new data source is a case-control study. To create realistic correlations between predictors, we also based simulations on real data on response to antiviral therapy for hepatitis C. From these studies, we recommend the LR method fit using a single model or constrained maximum likelihood. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.