Abstract
Clinical studies of chronic diseases often require long-term patient follow-up. It
is known that such long durations impact our ability to get eective treatments to
patients in need, increase study costs, and substantially contribute to participant bur-
den and noncompliance. Over the past 30 years, an incredible amount of progress has
been made in the development of statistical methods to identify surrogate markers i.e,
measurements that could replace long-term outcomes. However, available methods are
generally not applicable to studies with a small sample size. These methods tend to
either rely on nonparametric kernel smoothing with requires a relatively large sam-
ple size or rely on strict model assumptions that are unlikely to hold in practice and
empirically dicult to verify with a small sample. In this paper, we propose a novel
nonparametric rank-based approach to evaluate a surrogate marker in a small sample
size setting using a rank-based approach and relying on the theory of U-statistics. The
methods developed in this paper are motivated by and applied to a small study of chil-
dren with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), a a diagnosis for a range of liver
conditions in individuals without signicant history of alcohol intake. Specically, we
examine change in alanine aminotransferase (ALT; measured in blood) as a surrogate
marker for change in NAFLD activity score (obtained by biopsy) in the TONIC trial
which compared Vitamin E (n = 50) versus placebo (n = 46) among children with
NAFLD.
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